The unemployment rate, the percent of the labor force actively seeking work but not employed, is a lagging economic indicator into the overall health of the local economy. The 24-month forecasts attempt to provide the user an approximation of what the future may hold. These estimates are derived from the multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) model. One should never forget that a forecast represents a best estimation of what might take place. In a dynamic world, forecasts are often wrong because of unforeseen events. For this purpose, the forecasts incorporate a moderate recession occurring at 12 months out - the dashed lines. Always be cautious when employing a forecast for planning purposes.